Despite the global rise of illiberalism, some countries are showing signs of democratic resilience. In 2019, the United States saw a sharp decline in its ranking and an increase in political freedom violations, but the country has many sources of strength that could prevent further backsliding, such as an independent judiciary, robust civil society groups, and the active participation of citizens.
Across the globe, however, democracy is in crisis. Autocratic regimes are single-minded in their identification of democracy as a threat and work relentlessly to undermine its institutions and cripple its principal advocates. They manipulate elections, spread disinformation and propaganda, promote xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment, and encourage and fund political violence against their opponents. This antidemocratic expansion poses serious economic and security risks for all. When the rules of democracy break down, treaties and alliances erode, societies and regions become more unstable, and violent extremists have more space to operate.
The 2019-2024 election cycle will be critical for democracy, with more than four billion people expected to vote in 60 or more elections. In addition, democracy is at risk from strategic manipulation of elections, such as inadequate polling facilities and electoral interference through extreme gerrymandering, and from executive aggrandizement. The White House has sought to eliminate governmental “checks and balances” and consolidate power in unaccountable agencies, but committed professional civil servants have resisted vigorously.
These sources of resilience distinguish the United States from Hungary, Russia, Turkey, Venezuela, and other recent cases of democracy backsliding. Even if Trump is reelected, the nation will have a strong opposition that can organize and mobilize voters, unions, and civic groups to challenge his policies.